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Herd Immunity and Epidemiology

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My husband’s birthday is on April 1st. I let my relatives
know that his birthday was coming.

So, everybody called him to say for” Happy Birthday!”
on April Fool Day.

One of the callers was my husband’s cousin who is in
his late 70s. But he is still working at one of
the medical schools in Philadelphia as a half time
researcher in the field of radiation biology.

Since they have not seen each other in more than fifteen years,
they talked and talked for almost three hours. We always laughed
that the family has diarrhea of the mouth.

One of the topics they talked about was Coronavirus. Since
his cousin is a retired medical school professor,
he talked about herd immunity and coronavirus.

My husband found a study on herd immunity and coronavirus
in a MIT Technology Review after their long conversation on his
birthday. One of the topics they talked about their three hours

The article is written by Antonio Regalado and the title is
“What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?”

I will summarize this article:

• Corona virus could end up infecting about 60%
of the world’s population.
• The UK government was pushing the idea of
building up group immunity.
• The coronavirus is new, so it doesn’t appear
that anyone is immune to it: that’s why it spreads.
• The coronavirus most similar to the virus causing
COVID-19 is the one that causes SARS.
• The herd immunity multiple in a given population
goes like 1,2,4,8,16 …
• If half the population are immune, half of those
infections won’t happen again.

The conclusion of this story is that social isolation does not build up
herd immunity.

But, now, Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of
the United Kingdom got a coronavirus and he was
hospitalized and his pregnant
fiancé got a coronavirus, too. So, I don’t know
this theory of herd immunity.
But, closing down a whole world means that
no one is making money and consequently,
it’s really bad for our economy.

I will just continue to do my physical exercises including
housecleaning, laundry and walk.

Cooking everyday. Go to the grocery stores once or
twice a week. Checking money more carefully.
Definitely, my lifestyle has changed.

I heard that the airline companies slowly start to fly into
other countries to start the business. Ventilations are
coming from China by air. But, remember very slowly.
Wait and see.

My husband’s birthday made us think about Coronavirus from
a different angle from a different source.








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アメリカのおばちゃまさま こんにちは

ご主人様,4月1日がお誕生日なのですね。おめでとうございます。おばちゃまさまのお計らいで、いとこさんとも沢山お話しをされて,お喜びになったことでしょう。

こちらでも集団免疫の事が話題に上ってますが、国民の60パーセントが感染するまで隔離など行わないと、医療崩壊するし,重篤な人もでるし,ということで,この理論を推進していたイギリスでも方針転換されたみたいですね。
日本では,人混みを避けるように言われ(守る人もいれば守らない人もいますが),今のところ欧米のような爆発的な感染拡大は起こっていません。しかしここ数日,都市部の感染が増えているので,明日,いくつかの県で緊急事態宣言がでるそうです。
命も大切。経済も大切。どのようにバランスを取るか綱渡りですね。

ウイルスの第1波が去って感染者の発生が少なくなってから,第2波,第3波があると聞きます。ウイルスとは,長いお付き合いになるのでしょうか。

この2週間が決め手

ということで、じっと我慢の子、です。今日の新聞では中国の研究所から
ウイルスが流れてしまったとか。コウモリの菌の研究所?まだ読んでいないのですが。第2波、第3波なんて、人間の儚さを感じてしまいますね。

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